So much angst, talk and spin coming from certain campaigns these days, it might be helpful to have an overview of the Democratic primary race up to this point.
Although the Sanders campaign grows more desperate by the day, the numbers do not lie. We’ve all seen it by now. The wild and nasty insults against Clinton and her supporters. The outright denial of plain facts. Berners still insisting that the Pope in fact did invite Bernie to the Vatican!
I warned you months ago that this behavior came straight from the top. I think by now that is perfectly clear.
First, the most recent harp being played by the berners is the one about momentum and winning the last seven electoral contests. Incredible! Stunning! Right? Wrong.
Two significant facts quickly take the wind out of that sail: all the votes in the last seven contests barely make up 750,000 votes out of the 17 million cast so far in the primary, and while Sanders has won the last seven mostly smaller contests, Clinton won the eight in a row before that, with over 4 million votes. And that seventh Sanders win was a delegate tie.
So, good story Bernie.
Looking at the overall picture, you can find a break down of the math and the needed win percentages here. Sanders needs around 78% of the remaining delegates to win on pledged delegates alone. Clinton needs around 65%, but she has the majority of unpledged(super) delegates. Sanders will likely finish with 50 or less super delegates, so they don’t change his math very much, if at all. Clinton only needs 596 more delegates to reach the 2,383 needed for nomination. Sanders needs 1,251 more.
Clinton has won 20 contests, including large states like Texas, Florida, and Ohio. Sanders has won 17 contests, including smaller, deep-red states like Wyoming, where only 7,000 Democrats participated in this past weekend’s caucus.
And by now many of you have heard that the majority of the upcoming contests are closed primaries, meaning there will be no independents and Republicans crossing over to try and damage Clinton – and she wins Democrats handily almost every time. Real Democrats. Democrats who have been Democrats for longer than 3 months, for one candidate.
So those are the facts. Yes, I didn’t resist the urge to add spin, but that does nothing to change the numbers. And don’t listen to the nonsense about Clinton’s weakness in the general election. That is more uninformed talk and spin. I will just tell you this: I supported Obama largely because of concern for Clinton’s vulnerabilities in a general election. Those vulnerabilities still exist. They still must be overcome. But this isn’t 2008.
This is 2016, and we need Clinton’s style of administration more than ever. This is the right time for her. This time she will have Obama at her back, pushing, not in opposition. This time, we have seen the string of failures put forth by the Republicans: Bush, McCain/Palin, Romney, and now Trump or Cruz. And if you think a party that lets Sarah Palin become the vice-presidential nominee is going to stand in the way of a Trump nomination, you are more disconnected than I feared.
And this time, those of us who have been watching, waiting, studying, and preparing, are ready to bring on the next phase of our sixteen year plan to undo the damage of the Republican agenda, and make real progress on progressive ideals. And Hillary Clinton is the best one for the job.
#feelthemath