Yesterday was the election in Wisconsin where Bernie took the win with 57% of the vote, gaining the majority of 86 pledged delegates. With 3 pledged delegates yet to be assigned, Bernie cuts into Clinton’s pledged delegate lead by 11 after last night’s win. Clinton remains far ahead in pledged and unpledged delegates, and in popular votes.
As always, delegate counts are not final until the convention.
The math:
1,873 pledged and unpledged delegates remain to be had, and 2,383 are need to win the nomination to be the party’s candidate.
As it stands now, Clinton needs 1,081 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone. Sanders needs 1,300.
That means that Clinton needs 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to win on pledged delegates alone, while Sanders needs 78%.
However, to prevent Sanders from winning on pledged delegates and win with both pledged and unpledged, with the current count Clinton likely only needs to win around 31% of the remaining pledged delegates. The same calculation does little to change Sanders’ needed win rate, as he has very few unpledged delegates.
The next election is a closed caucus this Saturday April 9th in Wyoming with 14 pledged delegates to be assigned, followed by a closed primary Tuesday April 19th in New York, with 247 pledged delegates.