Tuesday, April 19th was the Democratic primary in New York. The state is not yet fully reported, but we do have a good picture of what happened.
Hillary Clinton walked away with a convincing win, taking 139 pledged delegates at the current count. Not only did Clinton win almost 58% of the popular vote, she won Democrats and women with 62 and 63%, and Blacks and Latinos with a stunning 75 and 64% respectively.
Sanders and Clinton split the male vote 50/50, with Sanders predictably winning the under 30’s with 65%.
Here I must point out that it seems more than a little significant that a very large proportion of Sanders supporters have never voted for a president in their lives, and if they have, it was only for one – President Obama.
Sanders also won the rural vote with 58% and the independent vote with 72%.
The New York win expanded Clinton’s lead by 31 pledged delegates, leaving her solidly ahead in pledged delegates, super delegates, and popular vote. With current poll numbers she has effectively eliminated any chance Sanders had of overcoming his deficit.
The math:
1,594 pledged and unpledged delegates remain to be had, and 2,383 are needed to win the nomination to be the party’s candidate.
As it stands now:
Clinton needs 937 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or 67% of those remaining.
To win with pledged and super delegates, Clinton needs 29% of those remaining.
Sanders needs 1,178 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or 84% of those remaining.
To win with pledged and super delegates, Sanders needs 71% of those remaining.
The next elections are Tuesday April 26th in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island with 384 delegates to be allocated, the most in Pennsylvania with 189 followed by Maryland with 95. These will all be closed primaries, except Rhode Island which is semi-closed. The six elections after April 26th are all single elections until June 7th, when six states hold elections, including California with 475 delegates.
*As always, delegate counts are not final until the convention.