The smart money is still on nothing big getting done this year or next. In Washington, the smart money is almost always on nothing big getting done this year or next. But it’s not at all clear that the chances of something big getting done are lower under the White House’s confrontational strategy than they were under its conciliatory strategy. After all, the conciliatory was tried, and it failed. This new approach would have to be pretty bad for the chances to dip beneath zero.