{"id":2002,"date":"2012-05-16T07:53:46","date_gmt":"2012-05-16T11:53:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/?p=2002"},"modified":"2012-05-16T07:53:46","modified_gmt":"2012-05-16T11:53:46","slug":"why-isnt-obama-getting-crushed-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/2012\/05\/why-isnt-obama-getting-crushed-right-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Why isn\u2019t Obama getting crushed right now?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Obama is the incumbent. The economy is growing at a moderate pace. There\u2019s no serious third-party challenge. We\u2019re not losing massive numbers of soldiers in a foreign war. And when you look at those fundamentals, the reality is this: Incumbent presidents very, very rarely lose under those conditions.<\/p>\n<p>I recently had to study this fairly closely in order to build the Wonkblog election model. The results seemed too optimistic for the president: At very modest levels of economic growth, the model would predict a win. But the model was picking up something real. Since 1948, only three incumbent presidents have lost reelection campaigns: Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. Carter and Bush both ran in very bad economies. Ford was a bit of an odd case, as he took office after Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SOURCE:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/ezra-klein\/post\/why-isnt-obama-getting-crushed-right-now\/2012\/05\/15\/gIQAR3qJRU_blog.html?wprss=rss_ezra-klein\">Why isn\u2019t Obama getting crushed right now? &#8211; The Washington Post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Obama is the incumbent. The economy is growing at a moderate pace. There\u2019s no serious third-party challenge. We\u2019re not losing massive numbers of soldiers in a foreign war. And when you look at those fundamentals, the reality is this: Incumbent presidents very, very rarely lose under those conditions. I recently had to study this fairly&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4,22,20],"tags":[34,1190,319,254],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2002"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2003,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions\/2003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/therationalprogressive.com\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}