About TRP

The Rational Progressive is a publication focused on progressive news and issues. Focused forward and focused on the facts, we avoid demons and demagogues.



by James Andre

  • The fight against the Right is over. The Left lost.

    The Guardian just out with a story connecting Trump's Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Billionaire Robert Mercer, and the Brexit campaign that is severing England from the EU. This is a frightening, but not surprising, story that adds to a growing list of facts that demonstrate the existence and operation of a shrinking number of geopolitical players whose power is growing… Read more… 

  • Trump raised more money from small donors than Clinton and Sanders combined. America has a problem.

      The Campaign Finance Institute just released an analysis of FEC filings for the 2016 election. You may remember Bernie Sanders bragging about the money he was raking in from small donors at an average of $27 each. Well, Hillary Clinton beat him in small donations. And Trump beat them both - combined. Not only did Trump raise more small… Read more… 

  • Think About This – Monday 8/8/16

    Here are a few things to think about this week when you are talking politics and policy: • The world grows more peaceful and prosperous everyday. Violence and warfare have been declining since World War II. • Respect for civil and human rights in the U.S. is growing greater every day. More police are wearing cameras, and more are being… Read more… 

  • Haters, Whine All You Want. Hillary’s Nomination Is Unprecedented.

    I just wanted to write a quick note to Hillary supporters with some info for when you hear haters complaining that Hillary is not the first woman to run for president. That is true, however:   • The Clinton campaign is not making that claim. Maybe some in the media have. • Hillary is the first woman to win the… Read more… 


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Progressivism

Progressivism is not an ideology at all, but an attitude towards the world of politics that is far less black-and-white than conservatism or liberalism, breaking free from the false and divisive dichotomy of liberal vs. conservative that has dominated American politics for too long.

Progressives aren't simply liberals; progressives see the world for what it is, accept it as ever-changing and dynamic, and choose the best course of action in line with decidedly American values.

-From an article on Alternet.org by Andrew Garib

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Trump raised more money from small donors than Clinton and Sanders combined. America has a problem.

 

The Campaign Finance Institute just released an analysis of FEC filings for the 2016 election. You may remember Bernie Sanders bragging about the money he was raking in from small donors at an average of $27 each. Well, Hillary Clinton beat him in small donations. And Trump beat them both – combined.

Not only did Trump raise more small donor money, after initially financing his campaign himself, small donors ended up paying over two-thirds of campaign expenses, far more then even Bernie Sanders. Further evidence that Trump may have emerged victorious no matter who ran against him.

Trump raised 69% of his individual contributions from small donors, compared to Sanders’ 44% (2016), Clinton’s 22% (2016), Obama’s 28% (2012) and 24% (2008)

America has a problem and President Trump is the symptom. So many have tried to spin Trump’s victory as the failure of one person or another to fight hard enough, or well. Trump’s win was not a failure of any individual or organization. This was a failure of the American mentality.

If Trump’s out sized small donor performance, the Republican electorate’s sudden love for Vladimir Putin,  and the vilification of Hillary Clinton, a woman who has been globally most admired for twenty years, and who left office only a few years before with a record high approval rating aren’t enough to convince you of this, nothing will.

There is a significant segment of the population that is only interested in peace, prosperity, and liberty for those they approve of. Sure, Putin has had people run off the road and irradiated with polonium. You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs.

Constant fear mongering, the denigration of our culture of education, and the creeping pervasiveness of profiteering that demands more hours of work every week to survive, all combine to create a citizenry that is afraid to think, doesn’t know what to think, and anyway has no time left in the day for thinking.

So people rely on tv and their emotions, and we have to listen as people talk about how they “feel” about political candidates. They cling to their religion and their guns, and when someone offers them a value meal candidate that looks familiar, or makes them ‘feel’ good, they choose the #4. Large.

This only works because we have fallen into the habit of excusing the behavior of our own tribe, and focusing on the value meal menu instead of facing the difficult questions about what kind of society we want and where we want to see our country in the future. Pre-packaged candidates and causes. And no one cares really, as long as they help us figure out which side the other guy is on.

You choose Planned Parenthood, I choose a pipeline.

There is only one way forward that holds any hope. Revolution does not start at the Oval Office, from the top down. The only way forward is for those with vision to start locally, find allies, and start doing things the right way. That means building our society on cooperation, education, sustainability, and liberty.

 

 

 

FLORIDA: Voting Begins This Monday. Here’s What You Need To Know

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Florida ballot recommendations: U.S. Congress, Florida State Legislature, Florida State Supreme Court, 11th Judicial Circuit Court, Miami-Dade Questions

Early voting for this November’s election begins in Florida this Monday October 24th.  Besides the election of the President, there are 40 offices up for vote. The number of offices on your ballot will vary depending on where you live. By now you may have received a sample ballot in the mail. If not, you can look yours up here, or go to your county’s elections department website.

Below are recommendations for voting this year. This article is written by a progressive, or what some would describe more generally as a lefty, so most of the ballot is easy: vote Democrat, not Republican.

The reason is simple: for all the talk of blue states and red states, almost every state is red. Yes, many states go reliably for Democratic presidential nominees, but when you look at the state governments, you find that the majority of politicians across the country are Republican.

ballot-recs

Florida, in particular, is a Republican trifecta, holding the governorship, the state senate, and the state house. That means fracking, increased cancer-causing chemicals in our water, no expansion of medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, no high speed rail, and very little action on climate change.

So vote Democrat all the way down the ballot.

That leaves Judges, Amendments, local seats and local charter amendments.

In Florida, Judges either win elections, or are nominated by a commission and appointed by the governor. So even if Judges are removed, the new appointees will likely be favored by Republicans. However, in the Supreme Court and Courts of Appeal, a new appointee only serves a year before facing a retention election. Five of those judges are on the ballot this year. If they are retained, they then serve a 6 year term. So voting against retaining partisan judges now limits the length of time the court is under Republican influence.

• Charles T. Canady: NO
Republican appointee, only justice to dissent on requiring death sentences to be unanimous, on Donald Trump’s list of potential Supreme Court nominees, allowed deceptive Amendment 1 on the ballot.

• Jorge Labarga: NO
Havana, Cuba born Republican appointee, refused a new vote in the 2000 Gore v Bush election, allowed the deceptive Amendment 1 on the ballot.

• Ricky L. Polston: NO
Republican appointee, rated more conservative than average, often sides with business and Justice Canady.

Edwin A. Scales: NO
Republican appointee.

Linda Ann Wells: NO
Republican appointee, sided with condo developers over Vizcaya Gardens.

Miami-Dade

11th Judicial Circuit

• Mark Blumstein
The edge: length of experience, history of community service, interest in veterans issues.

• Carol “Jodie” Breece
The edge: Length of experience, experience in government ethics, diverse gender and ethnicity,

Local seats, for example on Community Development Districts, are highly local. I will not recommend individuals here. This is something that if it directly concerns you, in my opinion you should know the issues, or leave them blank and let those who do decide. I don’t think it ethical to guess.

Local charter amendments are generally a matter of principle, even if you do not fully understand the amendment.

• Special Purpose District Control Measure: Miami-Dade County On the ballot: NO
• Public Records Measure: YES

 

 

 

Haters, Whine All You Want. Hillary’s Nomination Is Unprecedented.

Hillary_Clinton_Iowa_January_2016
I just wanted to write a quick note to Hillary supporters with some info for when you hear haters complaining that Hillary is not the first woman to run for president. That is true, however:
 
• The Clinton campaign is not making that claim. Maybe some in the media have.
• Hillary is the first woman to win the nomination of the Democratic or Republican party.
• Lots of women have run for president. Very few have had ballot access in all 50 states, and none have won a fifty state national election to win the nomination – except Hillary.
• Most of the haters will bring up Victoria Woodhull. Interestingly, this is a terrible example.
• Woodhull had ballot access in NO states.
• Frederick Douglass was Woodhull’s vice-presidential nominee and Douglass neither accepted or acknowledged the nomination.
 
Lots of women have run for president, and they have paved the way for this historic election. But Hillary Clinton is the first candidate with a legitimate shot to win – the FIRST female front runner in the history of the country.
 
Hillary Clinton has won exponentially more votes than EVERY woman candidate in history COMBINED.
 
So yes, Hillary Clinton’s candidacy is both historic and unprecedented, whatever the misogynists and haters will try to tell you.

How Bernie Sanders Exposed the Democrats’ Racial Rift

This puts a good point on it. But not only did the Sanders campaign downplay the historic accomplishments of the first Black president, hey downplayed all the accomplishments of the millions of Black voters that supported him and other Democrats in their efforts. Sanders may as well have pointed at Blacks and said “You ran twice as fast and got half as far. Not good enough.” -TRP

Many white Democratic voters missed the sentiment shared among black Obama voters in 2008 that, once again, the “first black” was being handed a seemingly impossible task—two ground wars, a collapsing economy, a record deficit—and if he wasn’t able to perform a miracle, it would not only be his failure, but that of black people in general. To downplay what he has been able to achieve despite the obstacles, which also included an unprecedented level of obstruction from the GOP, confirms a fear shared by many people of color—Democratic or otherwise—that no matter what they achieve, it will never be enough. Sanders and Susan Sarandon may sincerely believe things are so awful only a revolution can heal the country’s ills. But their overwrought rhetoric, and no more than lukewarm support of Obama’s accomplishments, taps into that deeply-held frustration among minorities.

That’s why, despite what looks like intractable problems to white Democrats, minority voters are more optimistic about the future than their white counterparts. That Obama was able to become president and get stuff done is an enormous source of not only pride, but hope. The Kaiser Family Foundation found that more than half of young black and Latinos believe their lives will be better than their parents, compared with less than a third of young white people. On many measures, black people have seen much worse days—the black unemployment rate neared 17 percent at the height of the Great Recession and is less than half that now—even as they continue fighting decades-long struggles. Things aren’t perfect, but the progress that has occurred during the Obama era isn’t something they want ignored or downplayed. Given that reality, why would they believe in the need for a revolution?

Read Full Article: How Bernie Sanders Exposed the Democrats’ Racial Rift – POLITICO Magazine

 

Hillary Clinton full CNN interview

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Hillary Clinton discusses EgyptAir, the war on terror, and Donald Trump with CNN’s Chris Cuomo.

 

Las Vegas police investigating death threats to Nevada Democrats

The Las Vegas Police Department has opened an investigation into death threats directed at top officials of the Nevada State Democratic Party, a spokesman tells Newsweek.

“We are investigating that at this time,” a department spokesman, Larry Hadfield said in a brief interview. He called the probe “an open investigation into some of the death threats made to Democratic office holders that reside in our jurisdiction.”

A spokesman for the FBI, which investigates threats to federal office holders, responded with “no comment” when asked whether the bureau was involved in the Nevada investigation.

Read Full Article => Las Vegas police investigating death threats to Nevada Democrats

Tamron Hall Interview with Nina Turner on the Nevada Dem Convention

TamronHallYouTube

This is a fantastic interview. Ms. Hall is one of the best there is. She really gets to the heart of some of the issues with the Sanders campaign. Turner is clearly a very competent surrogate and she holds her ground very well, but in my opinion her entire premise in this discussion is flawed. Turner’s position, and seemingly that of the Sanders campaign, is that the reports of trouble at the Nevada convention are overblown. Of course they are.

But that is not the issue. The issue is the tenor of berner’s behavior, and their disregard for rules and procedure that leads to the very real and disturbing threats against party leaders and their children.

And when Hall makes the logical extension of Turner’s arguments and asks about Bernie running for election as an independent, Turner builds a gigantic hedge in order to avoid answering the question.

How Senate Democrats are trying to deal with Sanders

The lawmakers met in a closed-door session days after Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) was shouted down at the Nevada Democratic convention, an incident that shook Democrats and raised fears about a chaotic fight at the party’s upcoming national convention that might cost the party the White House.

Democrats in the room decided the best course would be to let Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) handle the delicate task of talking to Sanders about the increasingly negative tone of supporters of his presidential bid, according to sources familiar with what happened at the meeting.

“I’m leaving it up to Reid. That’s what the caucus did yesterday. We said he would be the lead on it,” said one Democratic senator. “There was some suggestion that we would all make calls. And everybody said the best idea is to let the leader handle it.”

A senior Democratic aide said that thinking reflects an acknowledgement among the senators that Reid is the one member of the caucus who “has an actual relationship with him.”

Sanders is a political independent who caucuses with Democrats. That’s made him a bit of an outsider with his colleagues, something highlighted by the Vermont senator’s rebuke this week of a Democratic Party he says should open its doors to political independents.

The presidential candidate is not chummy with his colleagues.

Read Full Article => How Senate Democrats are trying to deal with Sanders | TheHill

Bernie Sanders Refuses To Admit There’s a Problem With His Fanatical Supporters 

Finally, after a year, it’s not just me that’s saying it. -JA

He’s still on track to lose; taking Oregon didn’t change that at all, as none of his victories have since March 15th. Yet his speech was as insanely mutinous as his earlier statement on Nevada, with a fiery Sanders painting the Democratic Party as corrupt if it wasn’t willing to let “the people” in. As Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo reports today, it spoke volumes about Sanders’s thinking. “Sanders narrative today has essentially been that he is political legitimacy,” Marshall writes. “The Democratic party needs to realize that.” Marshall’s overall point: that according to his sources — and Marshall is one of the best in the business — the hostility and toxicity in Sanders’s campaign is coming straight from the top. From Sanders himself. He’s lying to his supporters, telling them he can win when he can’t. And if he can’t, he’s telling them that the election is being stolen. This is where we are now.

Knowing which way the winds are blowing and taking into account, you know, things like reality and facts, it’s almost certain that Sanders’s more clear-headed supporters are beginning to turn their support to Clinton, being that she’s the presumptive Democratic nominee and the alternative is a sexist, racist, xenophobic, compulsively lying, demagogic monster. What we’re seeing now then is the death-rattle of a failed “revolution.” A revolution pushed on by an angry crank and nothing more.

Read Full Article => Bernie Sanders Refuses To Admit There’s a Problem With His Fanatical Supporters – The Daily Banter

Once an organizational army, Team Sanders now skeleton crew

•••

While the campaign had exhibited coherence through the first few states, flawed decisions and deep frustrations have marked the second half of the calendar.

The most public sign of discontent and disagreement in the campaign came April 26. It was a key turning point.

Sanders had just lost four of the five states that had voted — a week after a pummeling in the delegate-rich state of New York, where the democratic socialist was born and where he hoped to make a dent in Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead.

News outlets deemed the campaign on its last legs, and top advisers were publicly scrambling over how to react to the string of losses.

Senior adviser Tad Devine told The New York Times that the tough electoral results would spur a “reassessment,” while spokesman Michael Briggs insisted the inner workings of the campaign would not be rewired.

“There’s nothing to reassess,” Briggs said in an email to VTDigger on April 26. “He’s made clear that he’s going forward to give voters in California and every other state that still hasn’t voted a voice and a choice in the democratic process.”

The next afternoon, after an assessment, the Times’ Yamiche Alcindor reported that hundreds of staff members would be laid off and Sanders would “focus much of his remaining effort on winning the June 7 California primary.”

The story surfaced before the word was official, and many of the staffers learned of the layoffs from the Times, not the campaign.

Read Full Article => Once an organizational army, Team Sanders now skeleton crew | VTDigger

Sanders Issues Statement on Nevada: ‘Nonsense’ to Say Campaign Has ‘Penchant for Violence’

Sanders declares in the statement today that it’s “nonsense” to say such a thing. This is how he responded to calls to denounce the violence from his supporters:

Our campaign has held giant rallies all across this country, including in high crime areas, and there have been zero reports of violence. Our campaign of course believes in non-violent change and it goes without saying that I condemn any and all forms of violence, including the personal harassment of individuals. But, when we speak of violence, I should add here that months ago, during the Nevada campaign, shots were fired into my campaign office in Nevada and an apartment housing my campaign staff was broken into and ransacked.

He proceeds to denounce the supposedly unfair delegate system in Nevada in which the state Democrats “used its power to prevent a fair and transparent process from taking place.”

Read Full Article=> Sanders Issues Statement on Nevada: ‘Nonsense’ to Say Campaign Has ‘Penchant for Violence’ | Mediaite

Democratic Primary Update – Thursday April 28

primary results 4-26

Tuesday April 26th were the Democratic primary elections in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Another great night for Hillary Clinton that read as much as a hammer blow to the Sanders campaign as it did an electoral victory. Clinton took 4 of the 5 states, winning by 52 pledged delegates and almost half a million votes, taking an overwhelming 293 pledged delegate lead.

Clinton continued to dominate with women, voters over 40 years old, Blacks, and Democrats. Sanders continued his lock on independent voters.

While Clinton did expand her lead and is all but guaranteed the nomination (and the presidency), Tuesday’s elections do little to change the dynamic of the Democratic nomination process, save to place Sanders further back in the rear view mirror, and to make Sanders campaign claims of influence and rationales for continuing the campaign and solicitation of donations ring more hollow.

The math:

1,202 pledged and unpledged delegates remain to be had, and 2,383 are needed to win the nomination to be the party’s candidate.

As it stands now:

Clinton needs 719 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or 71% of those remaining. To win with pledged and super delegates, Clinton needs 232 more, or 19% of those remaining.

Sanders needs 1,012 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or almost 100% of those remaining. To win with pledged and super delegates, Sanders needs 971 more, or 81% of those remaining.

Clearly the numbers are prohibitive for Sanders; this race is over.

The next elections are:

• May 3rd, Indiana, open primary, 83 delegates
• May 7th, Guam, closed caucus, 7 delegates
• May 10th, West Virginia, semi closed primary, 29 delegates
• May 17th, Kentucky, closed primary, 55 delegates; Oregon, closed primary, 61 delegates

 


About the numbers:

These numbers are the most accurate available. No, CNN, the AP, and Real Clear Politics do not have accurate numbers. They simply report the numbers from election night and often do not update with corrections until the next election night, if at all. They often have charts that auto update without accounting for differences in caucus and primary states.

These numbers are based on the latest information and use the Democratic Party allocation formula, and are updated to account for changes. There is still a limit to their accuracy. As Nevada shows, no delegate counts are final until they are allocated at the Democratic convention in July.


 

 

Democratic Primary Update – Wednesday April 20

primary results 4-19

 

Tuesday, April 19th was the Democratic primary in New York. The state is not yet fully reported, but we do have a good picture of what happened.

Hillary Clinton walked away with a convincing win, taking 139 pledged delegates at the current count. Not only did Clinton win almost 58% of the popular vote, she won Democrats and women with 62 and 63%, and Blacks and Latinos with a stunning 75 and 64% respectively.

Sanders and Clinton split the male vote 50/50, with Sanders predictably winning the under 30’s with 65%.

Here I must point out that it seems more than a little significant that a very large proportion of Sanders supporters have never voted for a president in their lives, and if they have, it was only for one – President Obama.

Sanders also won the rural vote with 58% and the independent vote with 72%.

The New York win expanded Clinton’s lead by 31 pledged delegates, leaving her solidly ahead in pledged delegates, super delegates, and popular vote. With current poll numbers she has effectively eliminated any chance Sanders had of overcoming his deficit.

The math:

1,594 pledged and unpledged delegates remain to be had, and 2,383 are needed to win the nomination to be the party’s candidate.

As it stands now:

Clinton needs 937 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or 67% of those remaining.
To win with pledged and super delegates, Clinton needs 29% of those remaining.

Sanders needs 1,178 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone, or 84% of those remaining.
To win with pledged and super delegates, Sanders needs 71% of those remaining.

The next elections are Tuesday April 26th in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island with 384 delegates to be allocated, the most in Pennsylvania with 189 followed by Maryland with 95. These will all be closed primaries, except Rhode Island which is semi-closed. The six elections after April 26th are all single elections until June 7th, when six states hold elections, including California with 475 delegates.

*As always, delegate counts are not final until the convention.

Dear Berners: There’s No Getting Around Process

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One thing that has really been bothering me during the Democratic primary and about Bernie Sanders specifically is the severity of his ignorance and detachment from reality.

Bear with me – I honestly believe that is an objective assessment, not an insult.

At the root of it is a complete ignorance of process and any understanding of how to accomplish something, and how long it will take.

For example, Sanders says we don’t have time to wait when it comes to breaking up banks, banning fracking, getting rid of nuclear energy, and overhauling the medicare system, but for some reason when people are being shot and bombed and having their human rights denied and being forced to flee their homes, Sanders says we need to stop and consider the consequences of regime change.

As Clinton pointed out in the last debate, it’s true that Libya is not in a good place. But we have done little in Syria, and they may be far worse off, and contributing exponentially more to the growth of ISIL.

So here’s a concept: yes the situation in Libya is ugly, but maybe it’s the best situation we could expect. Maybe the birth of a stable Democratic nation can never be without pain and upheaval – it certainly wasn’t in the United States.

Beyond that, there is a level of immaturity that is not surprising coming from the majority of Sanders supporters given their average age, but is astounding coming from a senior with the experience of Senator Sanders.

When we are young, we rush, we hurry, we try to accomplish things in the shortest time possible. And we make more mistakes. We get into more car accidents. We have more injuries. We are more likely to gain unsustainable debt buying things we can’t afford.

As we age we begin to gain a larger understanding. We begin to fully understand the fable of the tortoise and the hare. We learn that the shortest trip does not always involve the most direct route or the highest speed. The shortest route to the grocery store may be Main street, but if Main street is under construction and there is an accident, your trip could take far longer than a route twice the length.

One hundred miles an hour is certainly faster than sixty. But if you try to drive one hundred miles an hour the entire trip from Brooklyn to Newark and get in an accident, or blow your engine, you will not arrive at all.

This is something most older people have learned and come to understand in their lifetimes. This is something Bernie Sanders should understand.

Clinton supporters and progressives who understand process and the U.S. government don’t choose incrementalism out of fear of change or some arbitrary love of being cautious. We choose it because it is the most efficient and quickest route to attain our goals – one with the smallest chance of being undone by opposing forces. It is the route that is twice the length, but will get us there in half the time.

These are the simple facts of life. No reasonable person can deny the point. But an unreasonable one can ignore it. Or a youthful and inexperienced person may fail to understand it.

As a child I spent hours in a U.S. Congressman’s office. I have served on city commissions. I have knocked on hundreds of doors for various causes. I have trained canvassers. Attended protests and demonstrations. Written letters and hundreds of articles. Made phone calls to strangers. Spent countless hours studying our government and it’s processes, and various issues. I have run and participated in SimSoc workshops.

This primary election is the first time I have ever in my life been called a ‘complacent’ ‘fake progressive’, in love with the ‘status quo’, who knows nothing about ‘real change’. Often by political inactivists, many who have never voted in their lives. I even had a well known Asian activist, a Bernie supporter, tell me, a Black man, that my contributions were meaningless and my critique of some BLM tactics was invalid.

I don’t think there could be a clearer demonstration of social dysfunction, when ignorance of history and process, and the disconnection from and disregard for wisdom and experience has become so great, that a so-called progressive leader can get millions on the Left to not only ignore their greatest institutions and their strongest leaders, but to eschew and denigrate them as corrupt, useless, and counterproductive – the “establishment”.

It’s a terrible farce.

Those of us who disagree with Bernie Sanders may be driving slower on a longer route, but I think in the past few weeks Sanders has been hitting heavier traffic. This Tuesday he may find that the road he is on is under construction.

 

State of the Democratic Primary – Monday April 11

dem-donkey-right-copy

So much angst, talk and spin coming from certain campaigns these days, it might be helpful to have an overview of the Democratic primary race up to this point.

Although the Sanders campaign grows more desperate by the day, the numbers do not lie. We’ve all seen it by now. The wild and nasty insults against Clinton and her supporters. The outright denial of plain facts. Berners still insisting that the Pope in fact did invite Bernie to the Vatican!

I warned you months ago that this behavior came straight from the top. I think by now that is perfectly clear.

First, the most recent harp being played by the berners is the one about momentum and winning the last seven electoral contests. Incredible! Stunning! Right? Wrong.

Two significant facts quickly take the wind out of that sail: all the votes in the last seven contests barely make up 750,000 votes out of the 17 million cast so far in the primary, and while Sanders has won the last seven mostly smaller contests, Clinton won the eight in a row before that, with over 4 million votes. And that seventh Sanders win was a delegate tie.

So, good story Bernie.

Looking at the overall picture, you can find a break down of the math and the needed win percentages here. Sanders needs around 78% of the remaining delegates to win on pledged delegates alone. Clinton needs around 65%, but she has the majority of unpledged(super) delegates. Sanders will likely finish with 50 or less super delegates, so they don’t change his math very much, if at all. Clinton only needs 596 more delegates to reach the 2,383 needed for nomination. Sanders needs 1,251 more.

Clinton has won 20 contests, including large states like Texas, Florida, and Ohio. Sanders has won 17 contests, including smaller, deep-red states like Wyoming, where only 7,000 Democrats participated in this past weekend’s caucus.

And by now many of you have heard that the majority of the upcoming contests are closed primaries, meaning there will be no independents and Republicans crossing over to try and damage Clinton – and she wins Democrats handily almost every time. Real Democrats. Democrats who have been Democrats for longer than 3 months, for one candidate.

So those are the facts. Yes, I didn’t resist the urge to add spin, but that does nothing to change the numbers. And don’t listen to the nonsense about Clinton’s weakness in the general election. That is more uninformed talk and spin. I will just tell you this: I supported Obama largely because of concern for Clinton’s vulnerabilities in a general election. Those vulnerabilities still exist. They still must be overcome. But this isn’t 2008.

This is 2016, and we need Clinton’s style of administration more than ever. This is the right time for her. This time she will have Obama at her back, pushing, not in opposition. This time, we have seen the string of failures put forth by the Republicans: Bush, McCain/Palin, Romney, and now Trump or Cruz. And if you think a party that lets Sarah Palin become the vice-presidential nominee is going to stand in the way of a Trump nomination, you are more disconnected than I feared.

And this time, those of us who have been watching, waiting, studying, and preparing, are ready to bring on the next phase of our sixteen year plan to undo the damage of the Republican agenda, and make real progress on progressive ideals. And Hillary Clinton is the best one for the job.

#feelthemath


 

Here’s What Hillary Clinton Said

hrclaunch

 

One thing I have learned over the years of studying government and electoral politics is that things aren’t always what they seem. As a progressive, I took it as a matter of fact that the ‘Left’ were the good guys and the ‘Right’ bad. Black and white. Over the past few years however I have discovered that things are not so clear. While Republicans may have their deceptions and denials, there is a love of mythology on the Left that may be equally or even more destructive. In fact, it is evident that politics and mythology go hand in hand.

One of the extant myths being promoted throughout the primary process is the idea that Bernie Sanders ‘pushed’ or ‘pulled’ Hillary Clinton to the left, and ‘forced her’ to talk about issues that she wouldn’t have had he not been in the race. As is typical, these kinds of assertions are made from whole cloth, with no basis in fact, by those with an agenda, and promulgated by the disconnected and credulous.

On April 12, 2015 Clinton announced her candidacy. Over two weeks later on April 29, 2015 Bernie Sanders launched a website. He didn’t hold an official event until May 26, 2015 when he officially announced his candidacy at Burlington’s Waterfront Park. A little over two weeks later, Hillary Clinton had her first campaign event on June 13, 2015 at Franklin D. Roosevelt Four Freedoms Park on the southern tip of New York City’s Roosevelt Island.

Here is one thing she had to say at the time Bernie Sanders had just announced, when no one gave him any credit for being a factor in the primary race:

Prosperity can’t be just for CEOs and hedge fund managers. Democracy can’t be just for billionaires and corporations.

She didn’t stop there. Anyone doing objective research will find that many of these themes go back decades for Clinton. You can see the video and read the transcript for yourself below.

Here is a transcript of the full remarks, as prepared for delivery:

Thank you! Oh, thank you all! Thank you so very, very much.

It is wonderful to be here with all of you.

To be in New York with my family, with so many friends, including many New Yorkers who gave me the honor of serving them in the Senate for eight years.

To be right across the water from the headquarters of the United Nations, where I represented our country many times.

To be here in this beautiful park dedicated to Franklin Roosevelt’s enduring vision of America, the nation we want to be.

And in a place… with absolutely no ceilings.

You know, President Roosevelt’s Four Freedoms are a testament to our nation’s unmatched aspirations and a reminder of our unfinished work at home and abroad. His legacy lifted up a nation and inspired presidents who followed. One is the man I served as Secretary of State, Barack Obama, and another is my husband, Bill Clinton.

Two Democrats guided by the — Oh, that will make him so happy. They were and are two Democrats guided by the fundamental American belief that real and lasting prosperity must be built by all and shared by all.

President Roosevelt called on every American to do his or her part, and every American answered. He said there’s no mystery about what it takes to build a strong and prosperous America: “Equality of opportunity… Jobs for those who can work… Security for those who need it… The ending of special privilege for the few… The preservation of civil liberties for all… a wider and constantly rising standard of living.”

That still sounds good to me.

It’s America’s basic bargain. If you do your part you ought to be able to get ahead. And when everybody does their part, America gets ahead too.

That bargain inspired generations of families, including my own.

It’s what kept my grandfather going to work in the same Scranton lace mill every day for 50 years.

It’s what led my father to believe that if he scrimped and saved, his small business printing drapery fabric in Chicago could provide us with a middle-class life. And it did.

When President Clinton honored the bargain, we had the longest peacetime expansion in history, a balanced budget, and the first time in decades we all grew together, with the bottom 20 percent of workers increasing their incomes by the same percentage as the top 5 percent.

When President Obama honored the bargain, we pulled back from the brink of Depression, saved the auto industry, provided health care to 16 million working people, and replaced the jobs we lost faster than after a financial crash.

But, it’s not 1941, or 1993, or even 2009. We face new challenges in our economy and our democracy.

We’re still working our way back from a crisis that happened because time-tested values were replaced by false promises.

Instead of an economy built by every American, for every American, we were told that if we let those at the top pay lower taxes and bend the rules, their success would trickle down to everyone else.

What happened?

Well, instead of a balanced budget with surpluses that could have eventually paid off our national debt, the Republicans twice cut taxes for the wealthiest, borrowed money from other countries to pay for two wars, and family incomes dropped. You know where we ended up.

Except it wasn’t the end.

As we have since our founding, Americans made a new beginning.

You worked extra shifts, took second jobs, postponed home repairs… you figured out how to make it work. And now people are beginning to think about their future again – going to college, starting a business, buying a house, finally being able to put away something for retirement.

So we’re standing again. But, we all know we’re not yet running the way America should.

You see corporations making record profits, with CEOs making record pay, but your paychecks have barely budged.

While many of you are working multiple jobs to make ends meet, you see the top 25 hedge fund managers making more than all of America’s kindergarten teachers combined. And, often paying a lower tax rate.

So, you have to wonder: “When does my hard work pay off? When does my family get ahead?”

“When?”

I say now.

Prosperity can’t be just for CEOs and hedge fund managers.

Democracy can’t be just for billionaires and corporations.

Prosperity and democracy are part of your basic bargain too.

You brought our country back.

Now it’s time — your time to secure the gains and move ahead.

And, you know what?

America can’t succeed unless you succeed.

That is why I am running for President of the United States.

Here, on Roosevelt Island, I believe we have a continuing rendezvous with destiny. Each American and the country we cherish.

I’m running to make our economy work for you and for every American.

For the successful and the struggling.

For the innovators and inventors.

For those breaking barriers in technology and discovering cures for diseases.

For the factory workers and food servers who stand on their feet all day.

For the nurses who work the night shift.

For the truckers who drive for hours and the farmers who feed us.

For the veterans who served our country.

For the small business owners who took a risk.

For everyone who’s ever been knocked down, but refused to be knocked out.

I’m not running for some Americans, but for all Americans.

Our country’s challenges didn’t begin with the Great Recession and they won’t end with the recovery.

For decades, Americans have been buffeted by powerful currents.

Advances in technology and the rise of global trade have created whole new areas of economic activity and opened new markets for our exports, but they have also displaced jobs and undercut wages for millions of Americans.

The financial industry and many multi-national corporations have created huge wealth for a few by focusing too much on short-term profit and too little on long-term value… too much on complex trading schemes and stock buybacks, too little on investments in new businesses, jobs, and fair compensation.

Our political system is so paralyzed by gridlock and dysfunction that most Americans have lost confidence that anything can actually get done. And they’ve lost trust in the ability of both government and Big Business to change course.

Now, we can blame historic forces beyond our control for some of this, but the choices we’ve made as a nation, leaders and citizens alike, have also played a big role.

Our next President must work with Congress and every other willing partner across our entire country. And I will do just that — to turn the tide so these currents start working for us more than against us.

At our best, that’s what Americans do. We’re problem solvers, not deniers. We don’t hide from change, we harness it.

But we can’t do that if we go back to the top-down economic policies that failed us before.

Americans have come too far to see our progress ripped away.

Now, there may be some new voices in the presidential Republican choir, but they’re all singing the same old song…

A song called “Yesterday.”

You know the one — all our troubles look as though they’re here to stay… and we need a place to hide away… They believe in yesterday.

And you’re lucky I didn’t try singing that, too, I’ll tell you!

These Republicans trip over themselves promising lower taxes for the wealthy and fewer rules for the biggest corporations without regard for how that will make income inequality even worse.

We’ve heard this tune before. And we know how it turns out.

Ask many of these candidates about climate change, one of the defining threats of our time, and they’ll say: “I’m not a scientist.” Well, then, why don’t they start listening to those who are?

They pledge to wipe out tough rules on Wall Street, rather than rein in the banks that are still too risky, courting future failures. In a case that can only be considered mass amnesia.

They want to take away health insurance from more than 16 million Americans without offering any credible alternative.

They shame and blame women, rather than respect our right to make our own reproductive health decisions.

They want to put immigrants, who work hard and pay taxes, at risk of deportation.

And they turn their backs on gay people who love each other.

Fundamentally, they reject what it takes to build an inclusive economy. It takes an inclusive society. What I once called “a village” that has a place for everyone.

Now, my values and a lifetime of experiences have given me a different vision for America.

I believe that success isn’t measured by how much the wealthiest Americans have, but by how many children climb out of poverty…

How many start-ups and small businesses open and thrive…

How many young people go to college without drowning in debt…

How many people find a good job…

How many families get ahead and stay ahead.

I didn’t learn this from politics. I learned it from my own family.

My mother taught me that everybody needs a chance and a champion. She knew what it was like not to have either one.

Her own parents abandoned her, and by 14 she was out on her own, working as a housemaid. Years later, when I was old enough to understand, I asked what kept her going.

You know what her answer was? Something very simple: Kindness from someone who believed she mattered.

The 1st grade teacher who saw she had nothing to eat at lunch and, without embarrassing her, brought extra food to share.

The woman whose house she cleaned letting her go to high school so long as her work got done. That was a bargain she leapt to accept.

And, because some people believed in her, she believed in me.

That’s why I believe with all my heart in America and in the potential of every American.

To meet every challenge.

To be resilient… no matter what the world throws at you.

To solve the toughest problems.

I believe we can do all these things because I’ve seen it happen.

As a young girl, I signed up at my Methodist Church to babysit the children of Mexican farmworkers, while their parents worked in the fields on the weekends. And later, as a law student, I advocated for Congress to require better working and living conditions for farm workers whose children deserved better opportunities.

My first job out of law school was for the Children’s Defense Fund. I walked door-to-door to find out how many children with disabilities couldn’t go to school, and to help build the case for a law guaranteeing them access to education.

As a leader of the Legal Services Corporation, I defended the right of poor people to have a lawyer. And saw lives changed because an abusive marriage ended or an illegal eviction stopped.

In Arkansas, I supervised law students who represented clients in courts and prisons, organized scholarships for single parents going to college, led efforts for better schools and health care, and personally knew the people whose lives were improved.

As Senator, I had the honor of representing brave firefighters, police officers, EMTs, construction workers, and volunteers who ran toward danger on 9/11 and stayed there, becoming sick themselves.

It took years of effort, but Congress finally approved the health care they needed.

There are so many faces and stories that I carry with me of people who gave their best and then needed help themselves.

Just weeks ago, I met another person like that, a single mom juggling a job and classes at community college, while raising three kids.

She doesn’t expect anything to come easy. But she did ask me: What more can be done so it isn’t quite so hard for families like hers?

I want to be her champion and your champion.

If you’ll give me the chance, I’ll wage and win Four Fights for you.

The first is to make the economy work for everyday Americans, not just those at the top.

To make the middle class mean something again, with rising incomes and broader horizons. And to give the poor a chance to work their way into it.

The middle class needs more growth and more fairness. Growth and fairness go together. For lasting prosperity, you can’t have one without the other.

Is this possible in today’s world?

I believe it is or I wouldn’t be standing here.

Do I think it will be easy? Of course not.

But, here’s the good news: There are allies for change everywhere who know we can’t stand by while inequality increases, wages stagnate, and the promise of America dims. We should welcome the support of all Americans who want to go forward together with us.

There are public officials who know Americans need a better deal.

Business leaders who want higher pay for employees, equal pay for women and no discrimination against the LGBT community either.

There are leaders of finance who want less short-term trading and more long-term investing.

There are union leaders who are investing their own pension funds in putting people to work to build tomorrow’s economy. We need everyone to come to the table and work with us.

In the coming weeks, I’ll propose specific policies to:

Reward businesses who invest in long term value rather than the quick buck – because that leads to higher growth for the economy, higher wages for workers, and yes, bigger profits, everybody will have a better time.

I will rewrite the tax code so it rewards hard work and investments here at home, not quick trades or stashing profits overseas.

I will give new incentives to companies that give their employees a fair share of the profits their hard work earns.

We will unleash a new generation of entrepreneurs and small business owners by providing tax relief, cutting red tape, and making it easier to get a small business loan.

We will restore America to the cutting edge of innovation, science, and research by increasing both public and private investments.

And we will make America the clean energy superpower of the 21st century.

Developing renewable power – wind, solar, advanced biofuels…

Building cleaner power plants, smarter electric grids, greener buildings…

Using additional fees and royalties from fossil fuel extraction to protect the environment…

And ease the transition for distressed communities to a more diverse and sustainable economic future from coal country to Indian country, from small towns in the Mississippi Delta to the Rio Grande Valley to our inner cities, we have to help our fellow Americans.

Now, this will create millions of jobs and countless new businesses, and enable America to lead the global fight against climate change.

We will also connect workers to their jobs and businesses. Customers will have a better chance to actually get where they need and get what they desire with roads, railways, bridges, airports, ports, and broadband brought up to global standards for the 21st century.

We will establish an infrastructure bank and sell bonds to pay for some of these improvements.

Now, building an economy for tomorrow also requires investing in our most important asset, our people, beginning with our youngest.

That’s why I will propose that we make preschool and quality childcare available to every child in America.

And I want you to remember this, because to me, this is absolutely the most-compelling argument why we should do this. Research tells us how much early learning in the first five years of life can impact lifelong success. In fact, 80 percent of the brain is developed by age three.

One thing I’ve learned is that talent is universal – you can find it anywhere – but opportunity is not. Too many of our kids never have the chance to learn and thrive as they should and as we need them to.

Our country won’t be competitive or fair if we don’t help more families give their kids the best possible start in life.

So let’s staff our primary and secondary schools with teachers who are second to none in the world, and receive the respect they deserve for sparking the love of learning in every child.

Let’s make college affordable and available to all …and lift the crushing burden of student debt.

Let’s provide lifelong learning for workers to gain or improve skills the economy requires, setting up many more Americans for success.

Now, the second fight is to strengthen America’s families, because when our families are strong, America is strong.

And today’s families face new and unique pressures. Parents need more support and flexibility to do their job at work and at home.

I believe you should have the right to earn paid sick days.

I believe you should receive your work schedule with enough notice to arrange childcare or take college courses to get ahead.

I believe you should look forward to retirement with confidence, not anxiety.

That you should have the peace of mind that your health care will be there when you need it, without breaking the bank.

I believe we should offer paid family leave so no one has to choose between keeping a paycheck and caring for a new baby or a sick relative.

And it is way past time to end the outrage of so many women still earning less than men on the job — and women of color often making even less.

This isn’t a women’s issue. It’s a family issue. Just like raising the minimum wage is a family issue. Expanding childcare is a family issue. Declining marriage rates is a family issue. The unequal rates of incarceration is a family issue. Helping more people with an addiction or a mental health problem get help is a family issue.

In America, every family should feel like they belong.

So we should offer hard-working, law-abiding immigrant families a path to citizenship. Not second-class status.

And, we should ban discrimination against LGBT Americans and their families so they can live, learn, marry, and work just like everybody else.

You know, America’s diversity, our openness, our devotion to human rights and freedom is what’s drawn so many to our shores. What’s inspired people all over the world. I know. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.

And these are also qualities that prepare us well for the demands of a world that is more interconnected than ever before.

So we have a third fight: to harness all of America’s power, smarts, and values to maintain our leadership for peace, security, and prosperity.

No other country on Earth is better positioned to thrive in the 21st century. No other country is better equipped to meet traditional threats from countries like Russia, North Korea, and Iran – and to deal with the rise of new powers like China.

No other country is better prepared to meet emerging threats from cyber attacks, transnational terror networks like ISIS, and diseases that spread across oceans and continents.

As your President, I’ll do whatever it takes to keep Americans safe.

And if you look over my left shoulder you can see the new World Trade Center soaring skyward.

As a Senator from New York, I dedicated myself to getting our city and state the help we needed to recover. And as a member of the Armed Services Committee, I worked to maintain the best-trained, best-equipped, strongest military, ready for today’s threats and tomorrow’s.

And when our brave men and women come home from war or finish their service, I’ll see to it that they get not just the thanks of a grateful nation, but the care and benefits they’ve earned.

I’ve stood up to adversaries like Putin and reinforced allies like Israel. I was in the Situation Room on the day we got bin Laden.

But, I know — I know we have to be smart as well as strong.

Meeting today’s global challenges requires every element of America’s power, including skillful diplomacy, economic influence, and building partnerships to improve lives around the world with people, not just their governments.

There are a lot of trouble spots in the world, but there’s a lot of good news out there too.

I believe the future holds far more opportunities than threats if we exercise creative and confident leadership that enables us to shape global events rather than be shaped by them.

And we all know that in order to be strong in the world, though, we first have to be strong at home. That’s why we have to win the fourth fight – reforming our government and revitalizing our democracy so that it works for everyday Americans.

We have to stop the endless flow of secret, unaccountable money that is distorting our elections, corrupting our political process, and drowning out the voices of our people.

We need Justices on the Supreme Court who will protect every citizen’s right to vote, rather than every corporation’s right to buy elections.

If necessary, I will support a constitutional amendment to undo the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United.

I want to make it easier for every citizen to vote. That’s why I’ve proposed universal, automatic registration and expanded early voting.

I’ll fight back against Republican efforts to disempower and disenfranchise young people, poor people, people with disabilities, and people of color.

What part of democracy are they afraid of?

No matter how easy we make it to vote, we still have to give Americans something worth voting for.

Government is never going to have all the answers – but it has to be smarter, simpler, more efficient, and a better partner.

That means access to advanced technology so government agencies can more effectively serve their customers, the American people.

We need expertise and innovation from the private sector to help cut waste and streamline services.

There’s so much that works in America. For every problem we face, someone somewhere in America is solving it. Silicon Valley cracked the code on sharing and scaling a while ago. Many states are pioneering new ways to deliver services. I want to help Washington catch up.

To do that, we need a political system that produces results by solving problems that hold us back, not one overwhelmed by extreme partisanship and inflexibility.

Now, I’ll always seek common ground with friend and opponent alike. But I’ll also stand my ground when I must.

That’s something I did as Senator and Secretary of State — whether it was working with Republicans to expand health care for children and for our National Guard, or improve our foster care and adoption system, or pass a treaty to reduce the number of Russian nuclear warheads that could threaten our cities — and it’s something I will always do as your President.

We Americans may differ, bicker, stumble, and fall; but we are at our best when we pick each other up, when we have each other’s back.

Like any family, our American family is strongest when we cherish what we have in common, and fight back against those who would drive us apart.

People all over the world have asked me: “How could you and President Obama work together after you fought so hard against each other in that long campaign?”

Now, that is an understandable question considering that in many places, if you lose an election you could get imprisoned or exiled – even killed – not hired as Secretary of State.

But President Obama asked me to serve, and I accepted because we both love our country. That’s how we do it in America.

With that same spirit, together, we can win these four fights.

We can build an economy where hard work is rewarded.

We can strengthen our families.

We can defend our country and increase our opportunities all over the world.

And we can renew the promise of our democracy.

If we all do our part. In our families, in our businesses, unions, houses of worship, schools, and, yes, in the voting booth.

I want you to join me in this effort. Help me build this campaign and make it your own.

Talk to your friends, your family, your neighbors.

Text “JOIN” J-O-I-N to 4-7-2-4-6.

Go to hillaryclinton.com and sign up to make calls and knock on doors.

It’s no secret that we’re going up against some pretty powerful forces that will do and spend whatever it takes to advance a very different vision for America. But I’ve spent my life fighting for children, families, and our country. And I’m not stopping now.

You know, I know how hard this job is. I’ve seen it up close and personal.

All our Presidents come into office looking so vigorous. And then we watch their hair grow grayer and grayer.

Well, I may not be the youngest candidate in this race. But I will be the youngest woman President in the history of the United States!

And the first grandmother as well.

And one additional advantage: You’re won’t see my hair turn white in the White House. I’ve been coloring it for years!

So I’m looking forward to a great debate among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. I’m not running to be a President only for those Americans who already agree with me. I want to be a President for all Americans.

And along the way, I’ll just let you in on this little secret. I won’t get everything right. Lord knows I’ve made my share of mistakes. Well, there’s no shortage of people pointing them out!

And I certainly haven’t won every battle I’ve fought. But leadership means perseverance and hard choices. You have to push through the setbacks and disappointments and keep at it.

I think you know by now that I’ve been called many things by many people — “quitter” is not one of them.

Like so much else in my life, I got this from my mother.

When I was a girl, she never let me back down from any bully or barrier. In her later years, Mom lived with us, and she was still teaching me the same lessons. I’d come home from a hard day at the Senate or the State Department, sit down with her at the small table in our breakfast nook, and just let everything pour out. And she would remind me why we keep fighting, even when the odds are long and the opposition is fierce.

I can still hear her saying: “Life’s not about what happens to you, it’s about what you do with what happens to you – so get back out there.”

She lived to be 92 years old, and I often think about all the battles she witnessed over the course of the last century — all the progress that was won because Americans refused to give up or back down.

She was born on June 4, 1919 — before women in America had the right to vote. But on that very day, after years of struggle, Congress passed the Constitutional Amendment that would change that forever.

The story of America is a story of hard-fought, hard-won progress. And it continues today. New chapters are being written by men and women who believe that all of us – not just some, but all – should have the chance to live up to our God-given potential.

Not only because we’re a tolerant country, or a generous country, or a compassionate country, but because we’re a better, stronger, more prosperous country when we harness the talent, hard work, and ingenuity of every single American.

I wish my mother could have been with us longer. I wish she could have seen Chelsea become a mother herself. I wish she could have met Charlotte.

I wish she could have seen the America we’re going to build together.

An America, where if you do your part, you reap the rewards.

Where we don’t leave anyone out, or anyone behind.

An America where a father can tell his daughter: yes, you can be anything you want to be. Even President of the United States.

Thank you all. God bless you. And may God bless America.


Democratic Primary Update – Sunday April 10th

primary results 4-9

 

Before making wild accusations about accuracy or motives, read this.

Last Saturday April 9th was the closed caucus in the state of Wyoming. Sanders won, taking 56% of the state convention delegates. In all, because of the proportional system for awarding delegates, the candidates split the delegates taking 7 each, which means that although she lost more counties, Clinton won the largest and more Democratic ones.

That makes the next contest the much talked about closed primary in New York on Tuesday April 19th, with 247 delegates to be allocated.

There are 1,647 pledged delegates remaining, and 1,845 total with pledged and unpledged(super). Although there is a much quoted number, 58%, that comes from 538 and is claimed as a threshold for Sanders to win the nomination, that claim is not true.

The 58% number from 538 is the win percentage Sanders needs simply to take the lead in pledged delegates. It is not the number he needs to reach the 2,383 total needed for nomination, and it does not include unpledged super delegates. As you can see from our numbers, Sanders needs 1,289 of the remaining 1,647 to win on pledged delegates. That makes his needed win percentage closer to 78% even if you add super delegates, as it is very likely he will end with around 50 super delegates or less.

As you can see, this chart does not report vote totals for the Wyoming caucus. Few caucuses report vote totals and the same is true for Wyoming. There are however some interesting unofficial numbers to report.

Democratic party officials report that although turnout was high, it was not as high as 2008, which holds the record at 8,600 caucus attendees. No, that’s not a typo. Wyoming is a sparsely populated state with only around 41,000 registered Democrats. This primary around 7,000 Democrats attended the caucuses. That means there was about a 17% participation rate from Democrats.

If revolution is the order of the day, the numbers certainly don’t show it. Sanders’ wins are coming largely from states where there is low turnout and low participation. Weirdly, the more he calls for ‘huge’ turnouts, the lower the participation seems to go.

Democrats in Wyoming had 5,000 new registrations before this year’s caucus. Assuming all those people registered and were interested in caucusing, that number is 71% of the total participants in the caucuses. Yet Sanders barely won more than half of the votes. Clearly somewhere there is a disconnect between the Sanders campaign message and the reality.

Although there is a lot of talk about turnout, uncertainty of future elections, flipping super delegates, and a contested convention, at this point it is extremely difficult to envision a path that leads to anything but a Hillary Clinton nomination.

 


About the numbers:

I regularly get attacked by Bernie supporters. The funny thing about these primary updates is that I get attacked from both sides.

These numbers are accurate. No, CNN, the AP, and Real Clear Politics do not have accurate numbers. They simply report the numbers from election night and often do not update with corrections until the next election night, if at all. They often have charts that auto update without accounting for differences in caucus and primary states.

For example: this chart does not include popular votes for this past Saturday in Wyoming. They were not reported or tracked, at least not accurately. RCP however has reported the State Convention Delegates as popular votes and added them to the candidate totals. And so some are confused, believing only a few hundred Democrats voted in Wyoming.

These numbers are based on the latest information and use the Democratic Party allocation formula, and are updated to account for changes, like the changes in Clark County, Nevada at the Democratic convention. There is still a limit to their accuracy. As Nevada shows, no delegate counts are final until they are allocated at the Democratic convention in July.


 

 

Sanders Begins His Death Spiral

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Coming off what may be a record week in the history of fact checking, Bernie goes for a blow out.

In less than a week, Sanders has garnered 10 pinocchios from the Washington Post and a ‘false’ and ‘mostly false’ from Politifact. In just 5 days.

But that wasn’t good enough for Sanders. He decided to continue the death spiral with more lies by surrogates, and a huge whopper today about being invited to the Vatican by the pope.

Sanders earlier on Friday said, “this is an invitation from the Vatican, from a pope that I have enormous respect for in term of the level of consciousness that he’s raising on the need to have morality in our economy.”

Turns out, the pope has nothing to do with the invitation. In fact, the President of the organization hosting the event hadn’t been contacted about the visit at all, and Sanders may actually have asked for the invitation:

“The president of the academy organizing this event has not been contacted with monumental discourtesy,” she said, referring to herself. Sanders “made the first move two or three days ago,” Archer said.  “His use of it is clearly a pretext. There are just 20 academics and there will be nothing of policy relevance.”

The actual official who extended the invitation declined to say who made the first contact, Sanders or the Academy hosting the conference.

And the office of the Pope quickly issued a statement to set the record straight:

Father Federico Lombardi, the Pope’s spokesman, said Sanders had been invited “not by the pope but by the pontifical academy of social sciences.”

Getting desperate for a meaningful win, and wanting to make sure the donations keep pouring in, Sanders is flailing around to try and change the discussion about his losing campaign and litany of lies. Unfortunately, his solution is to make the lies bigger and more outrageous. Looks like a great way to run a presidency, doesn’t it? If you can lie about the Pope, lying about something like weapons of mass destruction would be child’s play.

Update:

Politico has more:

“How did this come about?” co-host Mika Brzezinski said of the invitation. “It was an invitation from the Vatican,” Sanders replied.

But the invitation was actually made by Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, the chancellor of the pontifical academy, an autonomous institution that receives some funding from the Holy See but is not officially part of it.


source: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-08/sanders-accused-of-discourtesy-in-seeking-vatican-invitation
4/7  Three Pinocchios : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/07/sanderss-incorrect-claim-that-clinton-called-him-not-qualified-for-the-presidency/
4/6 False : http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr/06/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-has-released-few-tax-returns-compar/

4/5  Four Pinocchios : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/05/bernie-sanderss-false-claim-that-he-has-released-his-full-federal-tax-returns/
4/4  Mostly False : http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr/04/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-says-wall-street-tax-would-pay-his-/
4/3  Three Pinocchios : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/02/fact-checking-the-clinton-sanders-spat-over-big-oil-contributions/


 

Democratic Primary Update – Wednesday April 6th

primary results 4-5

 

Yesterday was the election in Wisconsin where Bernie took the win with 57% of the vote, gaining the majority of 86 pledged delegates. With 3 pledged delegates yet to be assigned, Bernie cuts into Clinton’s pledged delegate lead by 11 after last night’s win. Clinton remains far ahead in pledged and unpledged delegates, and in popular votes.
 
As always, delegate counts are not final until the convention.
 
The math:
 
1,873 pledged and unpledged delegates remain to be had, and 2,383 are need to win the nomination to be the party’s candidate.
 
As it stands now, Clinton needs 1,081 more pledged delegates to win with pledged delegates alone. Sanders needs 1,300.
 
That means that Clinton needs 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to win on pledged delegates alone, while Sanders needs 78%.
 
However, to prevent Sanders from winning on pledged delegates and win with both pledged and unpledged, with the current count Clinton likely only needs to win around 31% of the remaining pledged delegates. The same calculation does little to change Sanders’ needed win rate, as he has very few unpledged delegates.

Current Relative Pledged Delegate Totals

 

The next election is a closed caucus this Saturday April 9th in Wyoming with 14 pledged delegates to be assigned, followed by a closed primary Tuesday April 19th in New York, with 247 pledged delegates.


The Crucifixion of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 19: Florida Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) speaks onstage at the Inaugural Youth Ball hosted by OurTime.org on January 19, 2013 in Washington, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images for OurTime.org)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 19: Florida Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) speaks onstage at the Inaugural Youth Ball hosted by OurTime.org on January 19, 2013 in Washington, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images for OurTime.org)

There is no doubt that women in general face sexism daily. Hillary in particular is a glaring and unfortunate example of sexism faced by women as they strive for positions of power or authority.

I suspect that most women view sexism like most Blacks view racism: it’s a lot like the weather. Sometimes you get lucky and it’s a beautiful day. Sometimes you get caught in severe weather. You can prepare for the weather, but changing it is beyond our reach.

But beyond bias and bigotry, something that really irritates the Hell out of me is disloyalty and betrayal.

I’m bringing this up because I see the continual bashing, smearing and denigration of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. I have no doubt that it is largely motivated by sexism. But also infuriating is how criticism of Wasserman-Schultz is such a clear example of not only sexism, but a terrible and ignorant mentality that is taking over this country: a mentality of hate, and a mentality that sees nothing wrong with propping people up only to tear them down.

Today it seems completely forgotten how Wasserman-Schultz came to be chair of the Democratic party.

In the 2010 midterms, many were frustrated at the actions of many Democratic candidates, who were doing their best to distance themselves from President Obama. Fearing public perception of Obama initiatives, many went out of their way to avoid any connection with Obama or his policies, and offered weak responses when pressed with questions. Many Democrats and Obama supporters were angry at this, seeing the behavior not only as a betrayal of Obama, but a weakening of the legislative front against Republicans, serving to dissipate the populist advantage gained from the 2008 election. Of course, we now know that’s exactly what happened.

In the midst of all this comes Wasserman-Schultz, from a purple state with a Republican governor and a Republican legislature, who today is often criticized as a long-time ally of Hillary Clinton, standing up for and standing with Barack Obama, loudly and proudly proclaiming her support for and agreement with President Obama’s actions and policies.

At the time it was like a breath of fresh air. So many Democrats were frustrated and angry. Finally someone was standing up and doing the right thing!

Calls for more of Wasserman-Schultz quickly grew. Get her in those interviews! Send her on the talk show circuit! We only have an acting head of the DNC; give Wasserman-Schultz the job!

And in 2011, by popular demand, Wasserman-Schultz became the chair of the Democratic National Committee.

So don’t talk to me about ‘the lesser of two evils’. Jesus Christ has yet to run for election. Put away your crucifixes, your hammers and nails.

No one is perfect. This is not your family. This is not even your neighborhood. This is national politics in a nation of millions. You will never agree with every position held, or every tactic employed by someone else. It’s time to grow up, be adults, and recognize the full value of individuals, as women, as people of color, as people who are loyal, who are willing to make sacrifices for others. As people who value their communities and are willing to put in the work to make them better.

As people who are willing to stand up for what is right while others run the other way.

You may not like everything Wasserman-Schultz has done. But far more dangerous and disgusting are people willing to nail someone to a cross because of anger over a few issues, and memories that don’t even go back five years.